Month: April 2017

It was the most stunning political victory of the 21st century, one that brought shocked concern in many parts of the world and cheers in others. One uncontroversial certainty was that it would cause reverberations around the globe.

 

Donald Trump campaigned on an “America First” platform, but has found himself as president drawn into thorny geopolitical complexities aplenty in the first 100 days of his administration. Relations with Russia plummeted to “an all-time low,” as Trump himself described it, in the wake of the U.S. missile strikes on the Syrian government’s airfield in response to a deadly chemical attack. The administration’s Syria policy and how to handle President Bashar al-Assad seesawed.

 

A window of opportunity appeared with China after Trump hosted President Xi Jinping for a summit at his Florida estate, but tensions on the Korean Peninsula soared over North Korea’s nuclear program. Mexico showed consternation and agitation over the president’s planned border wall, but gave no sign it would pay for the structure as Trump had repeatedly promised voters.

 

Trump’s travel ban rocked refugees and asylum-seekers in several Muslim-majority nations, though it was blocked by federal courts at home. There were echoes of darker U.S.-Iran days, but nothing yet that would derail the landmark nuclear deal, as the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict continued to simmer.

 

Associated Press journalists in North Korea, Syria, Iran, Somalia, Israel, the West Bank, Russia, Germany and Mexico have gauged the global temperature by asking people five questions:

Do you feel more secure under a Trump presidency, or in danger?

 

Yuliya Konyakhina, Moscow: “I have a feeling that the world became more dangerous in general, not because Trump got elected, but in general it (the world) became more dangerous. When I go down to a metro I have sort of thoughts that something bad can happen.”

 

Shahrzad Ebrahimi, Tehran, Iran: “[The world] is 100 percent a more dangerous place. The U.S. threats to the world had been lessened during [Barack] Obama’s presidency and policies of that country were based on moving toward peace for at least eight years. But as soon as Trump took office, demonstrations began against him and the situations in Syria, Palestine, bombings, military and war threats all got worse. The more he sticks with his current policies, the more insecure and non-peaceful the world, especially the Middle East, will become. As you can see, now he is exchanging verbal blows with North Korea. Sometimes one can assume that this situation can even trigger a third world war.”  

 

Kim Hyang Byol, Pyongyang, North Korea: “It’s coming to 100 days since Trump became president, but we don’t care who the president is. The problem is whether they’re going to stop their hostile policy against North Korea, and whether they will do anything to help us reunify our country.”

 

Rustam Magamedov, Moscow: “[Trump is] agent provocateur, but in reality, he is just a good showman, as they say in the U.S. The fact that he became a president is rather scary, because he can start a war. It seems like that he is already moving toward the Korean borders. I think it is dangerous, first of all for Russia, because as a president and politician he is a bad person, a bad politician who has little understanding of politics.

 

Dan Mirkin, Tel Aviv, Israel: “Yeah, well maybe a little bit more dangerous. But I think that the steps that he took should have been taken a long time ago. And if it became more dangerous, then it’s not only because of Trump. Although, he has other drawbacks.”

 

Is the Trump administration more bark than bite?

 

Diane Lallouz, Tel Aviv: “It’s true that Donald Trump has a loud bark and you can say it’s more bark than bite. But, not really. It’s enough that he takes a few actions as opposed to not doing anything. He talks a lot, sometimes way too much and right off the sleeve without actually thinking about it and that may be a problem. But, at least the world knows that Donald Trump is going to take action when required.”

 

Raya Sauerbrun, Tel Aviv: “If it’s barking or if it’s doing, at least it shows that it’s doing something.  If it will sustain for a long time, we don’t know.”

 

Mohamed Shire, Mogadishu, Somalia: “This might be a new step; this might be a new strategy. We probably have to wait and see, but I think the United States administration needs to be very careful in just getting involved in Somalia without having a clear strategy and program that they align with the current Somali government.”

 

Yadollah Sobhani, Tehran: “Trump comes out with a lot of hype at first but eventually backs down from some of his stances on issues such as Russia, Middle East, Syria and so on. His inconsistent actions have proven that his bark is worse than his bite and he should not be taken very seriously.”

 

Majed Mokheiber, Damascus, Syria: “This is why we cannot predict whether there will be stability or more military security. In addition to that, we see that there are military tension spots around the world in other areas such as North Korea … that frankly may lead to a big explosion and a world war.”

 

Juan Pablo Bolanos, Mexico City: “I think it’s a bit of both. On the issue of sending Mexicans back, it is being fulfilled by the guy, Trump, and on the issue of building the wall, I definitely think he will not achieve it.”

Has Trump changed your views about America?

Ra So Yon, Pyongyang, North Korea: “After Trump became president, there has been no improvement in America’s image. If America doesn’t stop its aggression against us and pressure on us, then we’ll never have any good image of America; it will only get worse. We’ll never be surprised, whatever America does. And we’re not expecting any surprises from Trump.”

 

Yuri (no last name given), Moscow: “Nothing actually had changed, for real. Nothing had changed in Russian-American relations. They aren’t our friends or enemies. Geopolitical enemies, maybe, that’s it.”

 

Margret Machner, Berlin: “My trust at the moment is a lot less than it was earlier. One had the feeling that America was a strong, safe partner and I do not believe this anymore.”

 

Dan Mirkin, Tel Aviv: “I think that the U.S. remains the beacon of democracy because the U.S. itself is much more than its president. The president can be less or more of a beacon. But, America is a beacon.”

 

Hamza Abu Maria, Hebron, West Bank: “I’m about 30 years old, and since I grew up and started to understand and follow news, I don’t think the United States up until today was a beacon of democracy. If it was truly democratic, then from a long time ago they would have done justice to the Palestinian people.”

 

Mohammad Ali, Damascus: “We should never bet on any American administration, either Republican or Democrat. It’s the same front, supposedly to fight terrorism, but they didn’t do any of that. Instead they carried out an aggression against a sovereign state, which is Syria. They attacked Syria and they attacked the air base of a sovereign state and a member of the Arab League.”

 

Deqo Salaad, Mogadishu: “The U.S. was once both the beacon of democracy and human rights, but nowadays, a big change has happened as we can see more segregation committed by President Trump, especially when he said he was going to ban Muslims coming to the U.S. And with that, he has damaged the reputation of the U.S. of being the beacon of democracy and human rights in this world that the U.S. government promoted for ages now.”

 

Are we now living in a “post-truth” world?

 

Diane Lallouz, Tel Aviv: “I don’t think that we’re existing in a post-truth world and I don’t think that the way we consume information has anything to do with Trump. Actually over the last several decades we are getting information more and more on social media, so people are getting small amounts of information. Not too much real knowledge and that’s part of the problem. People are making judgments based on tiny amounts of truth or half-truth or non-truths, and it’s impossible to know, by the social media, what is really true. Is Trump the cause of this? I don’t think so. I think Trump is just a part of the picture that we live in today.”

 

Dan Mirkin, Tel Aviv: “I don’t think it affects the way that I consume information but it certainly changes the way in which the information is delivered, and the fact of alternative truth, alternative facts is a new invention, so we have to apply filters more than before.”

 

Mahmoud Draghmeh, Nablus, West Bank: “The world is far from the truth, despite the fact the technological development helped the news to reach. But I think that there is a distance from the truth, because the media, with all my respect to the different media outlets, everyone adopts his idea and exports it to the world.”

 

What has surprised you about President Trump?

 

Ute Hubner, Berlin: “I find he is very honest – more honest than I thought in the sense that a lot isn’t pushed under the table. He says it like it is, while here in our case so much is said and talked about that “everything is fine, wonderful and all is good,” while we know that the reality is more often than not something else.”

 

Fatmeh (full name not given) Damascus: “Trump increased problems in the Arab world and the first proof is the strike on Syria. This has increased problems and confusion. He didn’t do anything against terrorism; he only increased it. There is nothing new. His policy has been to oppress people, especially the Arab people. We didn’t see anything new.”

 

Yadollah Sobhani, Tehran: “What shocked me most from Trump was a sudden shift in his policies toward Russia from a friendly position to a clash. I did not expect such instability in a politician’s behavior.”

Payam Mosleh, Tehran: “What scared me most was the classification of human beings (under Trump’s proposed Muslim ban). I think history has taught and shown us enough times that separating people from each other has never done anyone any good. Building walls either in Berlin or America has no results and is disastrous.”

 

Mahdieh Gharib, Tehran: “What surprised me most was preventing Iranians from entering the United States or even barring those Iranians who were U.S. residents and had temporarily left that country. Bombing Syria was the second thing that surprised me.”

 

Shimon Abitbol, Tel Aviv: “He’s playing too much golf. That’s the only thing I’m surprised by. I mean, how can he have so much time to play so much golf?
…

Britain, where the Industrial Revolution began more than 200 years ago, has recorded its first full day without using coal power. The milestone was achieved Friday, following years of investment in renewable energy — a trend being replicated in some other European countries, and even in developing nations. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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The magnate behind LVMH is to incorporate Christian Dior into his luxury goods empire in a multibillion-dollar deal.

 

It’s the latest business coup for businessman Bernard Arnault, who has expanded his LVMH empire to include dozens of leading luxury brands — from high-end champagne and whiskies, to exclusive Vuitton handbags, Kenzo and Givenchy perfumes and Bulgari and TAG Heuer watches. Dior Couture, launched in 1946 and seen as the pinnacle of Paris style, would be a starring jewel in his empire.

 

Shares in Christian Dior and LVMH Moet Hennessy — Louis Vuitton rose after Tuesday’s long-awaited deal. The public offers values Dior at 260 euros per share. Shares in Dior spiked 12 percent to 253.95 euros by early afternoon trading Tuesday, while LVMH shares were up 4.3 percent at 223.95 euros.

 

According to the announcement, LVMH, which already owned Christian Dior cosmetics and perfumes, would buy Christian Dior Couture, its fashion business, for 6.5 billion euros ($7.1 billion). In addition, the Arnault Family Group is making a public offer for the Christian Dior shares it doesn’t currently hold.

 

The hope is that combining Dior’s entities under one roof and simplifying internal activities, savings will be generated.

 

The statement says the boards of both companies approved the transactions on Monday. The proposed deal will still need regulatory approval and consultations with workers. The companies also hope to issue the public offer in June, and finalize the purchase of Dior Couture in the second half of this year.

 

The companies laid out their hope that Dior’s fashion revenues and profit, which have risen in recent years, will be a  “source of growth” for LVMH, particularly with development in the U.S., China and Japan.

 
…

The governments of Spain and Brazil on Monday reinforced their commitment to completing a trade pact between the European Union and South American trade bloc Mercosur despite protectionist sentiments.

On a two-day visit to Brazil, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he agreed with Brazilian President Michel Temer about the need to wrap up a trade deal that has taken more than 15 years to negotiate.

Rajoy also called for elections as the only way to reach a negotiated solution to the political crisis in Venezuela, expressing “deep concern” over the volatile situation in the neighboring country.

“We agree that given the degree of confrontation and the volatility of the situation, a negotiated solution is needed, and it must inevitably involve giving back to the Venezuelan people their voice,” he said.

Rajoy is heading a large delegation of Spanish businessmen who are looking for investment opportunities in Brazilian banking, energy, water and infrastructure sectors.

Spain backs deal

Brazil is the third-most important market for Spanish investors, who account for the second largest stock of foreign investment in the South American nation after the United States.

Spain is one of the strongest backers of an accord to lower trade barriers between the European Union and Mercosur members Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Negotiations have been delayed for years by the reluctance of European farmers and Mercosur manufacturers to face competition.

“Spain has always been and will continue to be a firm supporter of the agreement,” Rajoy said after meeting Temer. “In these moments in which some feel protectionist temptations, we both agree on the importance of free trade.”

US retreat favors EU  

Argentine Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra, who is hoping to clinch the EU-Mercosur deal by the end of the year, said external reasons would help advance it.

Malcorra said the retreat of the United States from trade talks had opened a window for the European Union to become a strong player in multilateral, region-to-region accords.

“Our view is that [the EU-Mercosur accord] is not only an economic agreement,” she said in Geneva on Monday. “It’s more than that, a political agreement.”
…

The Italian and Greek governments are counting on France’s likely next president Emmanuel Macron to help them see off populist parties that blame European Union-enforced austerity and open immigration policies for economic and social ills.

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Italian premier Paolo Gentiloni both called Macron on Monday to congratulate him after the independent centrist won Sunday’s first round of voting in the French election.

The former economy minister, who is seen in southern Europe as an opponent of rigid austerity, is favored to defeat far-right, anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the May 7 run-off.

Five Star Movement a concern

The ruling parties in heavily indebted Italy and Greece hope his enthusiasm for the EU will help them see off challengers such as Italy’s Five Star Movement, which wants a referendum on ditching the shared euro currency.

A Greek official said Tsipras and Macron had an amicable discussion in which Macron noted his previous support for Athens in tough bailout talks with EU powers.

“I supported the need for a change of stance towards Greece,” the official quoted Macron as telling Tsipras. “It is certain that if I’m elected we will work closely together to ensure that Europe meets the needs of our generation.”

Gentiloni also spoke to Macron, an Italian official said, adding that the two would work together to ensure Europe can face its economic challenges.

Former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, who is plotting a path back to power at elections due next year, also welcomed Macron’s first-round victory, saying he represented a Europe that looked to the future, not “to the decimal points.”

Italian European Affairs Minister Sandro Gozi told Reuters a Macron presidency would bolster the ruling Democratic Party (DP) against populist forces like Five Star, which opinion polls show rivaling the DP with as much as a third of the vote. A path to government remains difficult, however, given its refusal to consider alliances and Italy’s electoral system.

 

 

Le Pen’s plans

Five Star and the right-wing Northern League question to varying degrees the adoption of EU open-immigration policies, the cornerstone of which is the Schengen open-borders area.

“Macron’s first round win and his likely victory in the second round will help give us a push,” Gozi said.

“Le Pen wants to get out of the eurozone, to get out of NATO, to dismantle Schengen and basically do many things that either the Northern League or Five Star want to do here. So if Macron wins, it is excellent news for us.”

The French connection

For Greece, a Le Pen victory would knock its major EU ally out of the union and weaken its defenses against a push from Germany, the bloc’s biggest creditor, for continued austerity.

Greece has debts equal to 178 percent of its economy and is struggling to conclude a progress review on reforms prescribed by its international lenders in exchange for vital loans.

Outgoing French President Francois Hollande helped fellow leftist Tsipras seal a 86 billion euro ($93 billion) bailout from the EU in July 2015, its third since 2010, which kept the crisis-hit country in the eurozone.

It expires next year, however, and Athens now needs France to lobby the rest of the EU, especially Germany, to agree to debt relief. Tsipras is counting on this support as the next election approaches in 2019.

Markets react to results

“Relations between Greece and France are strategic, they are based on mutual interests and common views on European affairs and I believe that Macron would stick to Hollande’s policy, which was supportive on Greece,” deputy foreign minister George Katrougalos told Reuters.

A senior Greek government official close to the bailout talks, which resume this week in Athens, agreed that a Macron presidency would be “sympathetic and supportive” of Greece.

Markets in Greece and Italy also welcomed the prospect of a Macron victory next month. Greek 10-year government bond yields hit a two-and-a-half-year low and Italian yields sank despite a credit rating downgrade on Friday.
…

Observers say one of the few positives that supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took from the controversy-marred narrow referendum victory last week was the widely touted bump in support from southern Turkey’s restive predominantly Kurdish region.

Critics say that bump had more to do with fraud and intimidation, but Erdogan advisers and members of his ruling AK Party argue it signifies a sea change in Kurdish sentiments toward the president and away from separatist politics.

“The Kurds stood next to Erdogan at a critical turning point,” wrote Abdulkadir Selvi, an influential columnist with Hurriyet newspaper, who added that “these results have reminded the ruling party of its historical responsibility in the solution to the problem.”

Adding to the weight of Selvi’s words is that fact that he is widely seen as being close to Erdogan.

“Kurds saved Erdogan, coalition with nationalists failed. Erdogan needs to pay back this favor,” tweeted Altan Tan, a parliamentary deputy from the pro-Kurdish HDP party, highlighting the widely held belief that Erdogan’s strategy of courting Turkish nationalist voters in the referendum failed.

 

But many within the pro-Kurdish movement remain deeply skeptical there has been any momentous change in policy, “No one really believes that,” said Ertugrul Kurkcu, an HDP deputy and its honorary president, dismissing any hopes for a new peace process. He argued that actions speak louder than words.

“The day after the referendum they arrested another HDP MP in Mus,” he said. “Who is is going to make peace with whom? The government with their local henchmen will make a peace process? This is something very amusing, in fact.”

 

The “henchmen” Kurkcu is referring to is Huda Pa, a hardline Kurdish Islamist party that strongly backs Erdogan.

Turkish security forces continue to crackdown on the PKK, the outlawed Kurdish insurgent group, claiming this week to have killed more than 50 rebels. But Friday saw the unexpected release from jail of two HDP parliamentary deputies. A dozen more remain in jail, including the party’s co-leaders. Last week also saw the PKK call off a prison hunger strike.

 

Erdogan has presided over previous peace efforts, and while they ultimately failed, his efforts were initially rewarded by a surge in support from Kurdish voters. Analysts suggest that, given the animosity between Erdogan and the HDP — in particular, its imprisoned leader — peace efforts could circumvent the party and involve direct talks with imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. That is what occurred in previous attempts at negotiations, the last of which ended in 2015 amid mutual recriminations.

The PKK has been fighting for greater minority rights and regional autonomy since 1984. The conflict has claimed over 45,0000 lives.

Observers say Turkey’s presidential and general elections in 2019 could provide a powerful impetus toward peace efforts, in Erdogan’s calculations.

“If Turkey is able to go back to that environment of seeking a negotiated solution to the Kurdish problem, then this would not only have a positive impact regarding stability at home,but surely enhance Turkey’s diplomatic hand abroad,” said Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels. “From there on, Turkey could adopt different policies toward the PYD.”

The PYD is the main pro-Kurdish party in Syria, which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization, linking it to the PKK. The PYD militia, the YPG, forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Force that is fighting Islamic State and is militarily backed by Washington.

 

That support remains a major point of tension between the NATO allies, and is expected to top the agenda when U.S. President Donald Trump meets Erdogan next month in Washington.

 

Many predict Trump will press Erdogan to change his stance towards the Syrian Kurdish forces, which would likely pave the way to an enhanced U.S.-Turkish relationship, a top Erdogan priority. But hawks within the Turkish presidency are pressing for military incursions into Syria and Iraq against the PKK.

“AKP is not on its own when speaking about the PKK,” said HDP deputy Kurkcu. “They have made a coalition with the MHP [Turkish nationalist party], they have made a coalition with the hardliners in the army. Therefore, this coalition does not allow for any reconciliation in this respect.”

Erdogan has repeatedly threatened new cross-border operations against the PKK, and local reports say military preparations are already underway. But observers suggest Erdogan is likely still digesting the lessons of the referendum and has not yet decided on his future strategy.
…

Preliminary results from France’s first round of presidential elections confirmed that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and nationalist, anti-immigration candidate Marine Le Pen are heading into a runoff in two weeks, marking what analysts describe as a political earthquake in France.

 

It is the first time in the history of the modern French Republic that the presidency will be held by a member of a non-traditional party, highlighting a deep anti-establishment sentiment that ultimately could determine whether France remains a part of the EU or follows an independent path like that of post-Brexit Britain and the United States under Donald Trump.

 

According to projected results, Macron garnered 23.8 percent, and Le Pen won 21.7 percent.  The winner needs an absolute majority and that will be determined in a runoff on May 7th.

 

“In one year, we have entirely changed French politics,” Macron said at a victory rally Sunday night.

Macron, a 39-year-old center-left former economy minister who is pro-EU, pro-business, led pre-election polls despite his previous association with unpopular Socialist President Francois Hollande. The appeal of his year-old En Marche! (Onward!) movement lies mainly in France’s prosperous urban areas, where globalism has benefited many.

 

His challenge is to galvanize support of centrists and the left, including members of France’s fractured Socialist party, and convince voters he does not represent an extension of Hollande’s policies.

 

Macron will face Le Pen and her National Front party, whose strongholds are largely in formerly industrial areas of France where unemployment is high and so is disillusionment with the modern economic and social order.  Le Pen, who wants France out of the European Union, has succeeded in winning over large numbers of former leftists and centrists. Over the next two weeks, she hopes to draw from the right and the center, especially those who are most disillusioned with the status quo.  

 

“It is time to liberate the French people,” she told supporters at a rally Sunday.

Among the top contenders from 11 candidates was former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, a center-right social conservative whose bid was damaged by allegations of creating fake jobs for close relatives.  Conceding defeat on Sunday, he endorsed Macron.

The vote happened amid tight security following a terrorist attack in Paris just days before the poll that observers thought would benefit Le Pen.

 

On Sunday, 50,000 police officers backed by 7,000 soldiers, including special forces, were deployed to the streets amid tensions following the attack claimed by the Islamic State terrorist group. The shooting along the iconic Champs-Elysees in the heart of Paris left one police officer dead and several other people injured.

 

In a tweet one day after the Champs Elysees shooting, U.S. President Trump said, “The people of France will not take much more of this.  Will have a big effect on presidential election!”

Analysts and voters interviewed saw this as the most unpredictable election since World War II.  One third of voters were undecided just days before the balloting.

In the last few weeks before the vote, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon surged in the polls and so did discussion of the previously obscure candidate in social media.

Among the ways his campaign lured young voters was through the release of a video game in which a player pretending to be Melenchon walks the streets and takes money from men in suits.  The player is shown in a battle against the rich and powerful.

Anger at the establishment is the sentiment driving voters in an election in which security, France’s lagging economy, its 10 percent unemployment rate, and Islamist extremism are issues on the minds of those on the left and on the right.

That, say analysts, is what influenced large numbers of people, including some of the middle and upper class residents of Paris, to vote for candidates of the extreme.  

“Some of them for the thrill of it.  It’s the principle, you know.  Like playing Russian roulette, but politically.  Some others it would be because they despise the elite of this country,” said Thomas Guénolé, a political analyst in Paris, told VOA.

 

Socialist President Francois Hollande announced he would not to run for reelection after his approval ratings sank to 4 percent, something analysts widely attribute to a string of terrorist attacks in France and a stagnation of economic growth during his tenure.  Hollande is the first incumbent president not to seek reelection in the history of modern France.
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Results of France’s first round presidential elections confirm that centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalist, anti-immigration crusader Marine Le Pen are heading into a runoff in two weeks, marking what analysts describe as a political earthquake in France. Final results Monday show Macron with 23.8 percent and Le Pen 21.5 percent of the vote, qualifying them for a presidential runoff on May 7. VOA Europe correspondent Luis Ramirez reports.
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An American member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was killed and at last two others were injured Sunday when their car hit a mine near rebel-held Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Austria’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the incident near the small village of Pryshyb.  Austria currently holds the OSCE’s rotating presidency.

Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz demanded a thorough investigation, adding that those responsible would be held accountable.

Alexander Hug, deputy chief of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM), told journalists that a German and a Czech national were injured but have been treated at a local hospital in Ukraine’s eastern republic of Lugansk.

According to reports, the vehicle drove over a mine in territory controlled by the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic.

A rebel statement said the OSCE team was traveling along an unsafe road.  “We know that the mentioned crew deviated from the main route and moved along side roads, which is prohibited by the mandate of the OSCE SMM,” local media reported.

The incident marks the first loss of life for the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.

The OSCE has 600 members in eastern Ukraine, the only independent monitoring mission in the destroyed industrial war zone.  It provides daily reports on the war and has angered insurgents for accusing them of being responsible for most truce agreement violations.

For the past three years tensions between Ukraine and separatists in the Russian-held eastern part of the country continue to increase, despite a 2015 ceasefire agreement that is repeatedly violated.

At least 9,750 people have been killed in the war in eastern Ukraine since April 2014.  More than 40 died during the first two months of this year, when hostilities in the conflict suddenly surged.
…

Polls are open across France in an election that is one of the closest watched in decades, with 11 candidates, ranging from the extreme right to the extreme left, vying for the French presidency.

Tight security is in place after a terrorist attack in Paris on Thursday, just days before the voting.

About 50,000 police officers backed by 7,000 soldiers, including special forces, were deployed to the streets for security amid tensions following the attack claimed by the Islamic State terrorist group. The shooting along the iconic Champs-Elysees in the heart of Paris left one police officer dead and several other people injured.

State of emergency, tight security

This is the first election to be held under a state of emergency called after the 2015 Paris attacks, and observers say last week’s shooting could bring out many voters who had otherwise planned to abstain.

In a tweet a day after the Champs Elysees shooting, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!”

Despite predictions of low voter turnout, witnesses said lines formed at voting stations in Paris’ 15th arrondissement before opening hours and turnout was reported to be heavy at various polling stations across the country.

Pre-election polls show tight race

Leading in pre-election polls has been Emmanuel Macron, a center-left former economy minister who is pro-Europe and pro-business with close ties to unpopular Socialist President Francois Hollande. His appeal lies mainly in France’s prosperous urban areas where globalism has benefited many.

A close second has been Marine Le Pen, who wants to end most immigration to France, especially from Muslim countries. She also wants France to leave the European Union. Her strongholds are largely in formerly industrial areas of France where unemployment is high and so is disillusionment with the modern economic and social order.

Another top contender is Francois Fillon, who favors cuts in public spending and pushing for deep reforms in the EU.

Last-minute decisions

Analysts and voters interviewed see this as the most unpredictable election since World War II. One-third of voters were undecided days before the balloting.

In the last few weeks before the vote, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon surged in the polls and so did discussion of the previously obscure candidate in social media.

Among the ways his campaign lured young voters was through the release of a video game in which a player pretending to be Melenchon walks the streets and takes money from men in suits. The player is shown in a battle against the rich and powerful.

Anger at the establishment is the sentiment driving voters in an election in which security, France’s lagging economy, its 10-percent unemployment rate, and Islamist extremism are issues on the minds of those on the left and on the right.

That, analysts say, is what is driving large numbers of people, including some of the middle and upper class residents of Paris, to vote for candidates of the extreme, like Le Pen and Melenchon. 

“Some of them for the thrill of it. It’s the principle, you know. Like playing Russian roulette, but politically.Some others it would be because they despise the elite of this country,” said Thomas Guénolé, a political analyst in Paris, told VOA.

The top two winners of Sunday’s poll will face off in a runoff election May 7th.

Polls close at 1800 UTC.
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Britain’s Theresa May appeared on course to win a crushing election victory in June after opinion polls put support for her ruling Conservative party around 50 percent, twice that of the opposition Labor party.

May’s decision to call a June 8 election stunned her political rivals this week and a string of polls released late Saturday suggested the gamble had paid off, with one from ComRes showing the party of Margaret Thatcher enjoying levels of support not seen since 1991.

May, appointed prime minister in the turmoil that followed Britain’s vote to leave the European Union last June, said she needed the election to secure her own mandate and strengthen her hand for the Brexit negotiations ahead.

She is also looking to capitalize on the disarray swirling around the Labor party, which has been riven with internal division over its leader Jeremy Corbyn. Voters also appear to be switching from the anti-EU UKIP party, which helped campaign for Brexit, to May’s Conservatives, which will likely deliver it.

Gaining in Scotland

In two other polls, May’s Conservatives also gained ground in Scotland at the expense of the Scottish National Party, potentially weakening the nationalists’ demand for another independence referendum.

May has warned her party not to take victory for granted, a message that was echoed by pollsters Saturday.

“While no political party could ever object to breaching the 50 percent barrier for the first time this century, this spectacular headline result masks a real danger for the Tories,” said ComRes Chairman Andrew Hawkins.

“The fact that 6 in 10 voters believe Labor cannot win under Corbyn’s leadership bring with it the threat of complacency among Tory (Conservative) voters who may be tempted to sit at home on June 8th and let others deliver the result they expect.”

According to polls by Opinium, ComRes and YouGov, May’s Conservatives held a lead of 19 to 25 percentage points, with the party’s support ranging from 45 percent to 50 percent.

Labor-like policies

Having repeatedly denied that she would call an election, May is now also poised to announce a raft of policy proposals more commonly associated with the left-leaning Labor party, according to the Sunday Times.

The newspaper said the Conservatives would pledge to protect workers’ rights and cap more household energy prices in a bid to help those hit by rising inflation and muted wage growth.

If the polls are correct, the Conservatives could secure a once-in-a-generation victory that will realign the British political landscape. According to the polls, Labor has lost its reputation as the party that would best protect the National Health Service — once its strongest claim.

The improved Conservative fortunes across the country have also spread to Scotland, where First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party, or SNP, has stepped up calls for a second independence referendum.

According to an analysis for the Times, the Conservatives are on course to win 12 seats in Scotland while Labor will be wiped from its former political stronghold. Currently, the Conservatives hold one of Scotland’s 59 seats in the British parliament. The SNP holds 54.
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French expatriates in South America, Canada and the United States kicked off the voting Saturday in France’s presidential election, on the heels of several terror attacks that could affect the outcome.

Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and a former economy minister, independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, are the top contenders, followed by conservative former Prime Minister Francois Fillon and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The candidates are vying to replace incumbent Francois Hollande, who announced earlier this year that he would not run for another term.

Campaigning ended earlier than expected Thursday when a French policeman was killed by a gunman on the Champs-Elysee, one of Paris’ most popular streets for shopping and tourism. Analysts have long said a last-minute event could swing the election outcome.

In November 2015, Paris terror attacks, in which 130 people were killed, happened just weeks before France held regional elections. The attacks are thought to have given a boost to Le Pen’s National Front party, which lost in the second round of voting and failed to win control of any region.

Some French critics of LePen told reporters they feared this week’s attack and others like it could push her campaign to a win, perhaps endangering France’s future in the European Union.

But national security is not the only issue that matters in this year’s election. France’s unemployment rate is about 10 percent, more than twice as high as that of its neighbor Germany, and the state of the economy is a constant worry.

The bulk of the first-round voting in France itself will come Sunday. Early results are expected around 9 p.m. Paris time.
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