Report: Russia Hacked Ukrainian Energy Firm Tied to Impeachment Inquiry

Hackers from Russia’s military intelligence unit, the GRU, have allegedly targeted a Ukrainian energy firm tied to the impeachment proceedings against U.S. President Donald Trump.

Cybersecurity experts at California-based Area 1 Security released a report on Monday that found Burisma Holdings, where the son of presidential front-runner Joe Biden sat on the board, was successfully penetrated in a wide-ranging phishing campaign that stole e-mail credentials of employees.

It isn’t clear if anything was stolen from the company or its subsidiaries, which were initially targeted, if any information was gleaned, and what the ultimate goal of the hackers was.

FILE – Hunter Biden waits for the start of the his father’s debate at Centre College in Danville, Ky., Oct. 11, 2012.

Hunter Biden, the son of former Vice President Joe Biden, was a board member of Burisma from 2014 until last year.

Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to “look into” allegations of wrongdoing by the Bidens and the energy firm in a July 25 phone call. Their conversation was the subject of an ensuing whistle-blower’s complaint that triggered the impeachment investigation, which began in September.

The U.S. president has since been charged with abuse of office and obstruction of Congress by the Democratic-led House of Representatives, which is scheduled on January 14 to vote on the timing of when to send the articles of impeachment to the Republican-controlled Senate for a trial on whether to remove him from office.

No evidence of corruption by either of the Bidens has surfaced in light of allegations by Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, that the former vice president sought to protect his son by pressuring Ukrainian officials.

Evidence has yet to emerge of allegations that Joe Biden pushed for the ouster of Ukraine’s chief prosecutor when he served as vice president and was seen as then-President Barack Obama’s point man on Ukraine.

U.S. allies in Europe and Ukraine’s international lenders supported Joe Biden because successive chief prosecutors were believed to have been either obstructing or stalling investigations into high-profile corruption cases, including probes into Burisma.

A screenshot of the Fancy Bears website fancybear.net is seen on a computer screen in Moscow, Russia, Sept. 14, 2016. Confidential medical data of several U.S. Olympians hacked from a World Anti-Doping Agency database was posted online Sept. 13, 2016

The alleged hacker group used a similar phishing pattern and is directly connected to Fancy Bear, the same Russian cyber-infiltrators of the Democratic National Committee in the months leading up the 2016 presidential election that Trump, a Republican, won.

The GRU featured prominently in the Mueller report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, which concluded that Russia hacked the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton’s campaign to help Trump.

Russia has denied meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign and election.

Area 1’s eight-page report said the cyberattacks on Burisma began in November, when Ukraine and impeachment, as well as talk of the Bidens, were dominating news headlines in the United States.

Zelenskiy Firm Targeted

“Area 1 Security has also further connected this GRU phishing campaign to another phishing campaign targeting a media organization founded” by Zelensky, the report said.

The New York Times, which first wrote about the anti-phishing company’s report, said the attack “appears to have been aimed at digging up e-mail correspondence” of Studio Kvartal 95, which then was headed by Ivan Bakanov, whom Zelenskiy appointed as head of Ukraine’s Security Service in June.

NAACP Lawsuit Claims Census Bureau is Unprepared for Count

Calling preparations for the 2020 Census “conspicuously deficient,” the NAACP is suing the U.S. Census Bureau, demanding that the agency send more workers into the field and spend more money on encouraging people to participate in the once-a-decade head count.
    
The civil rights group and Prince George’s County, a majority African American county in Maryland, filed the lawsuit last Friday in federal court in Maryland. It  claims the Census Bureau wasn’t planning to put enough workers in the field and hadn’t opened up a sufficient number of field offices.
    
The lawsuit also faulted the bureau for conducting  limited testing, particularly when, for the first time, it is encouraging most respondents to answer the questionnaire online.
    
The 2020 census will help determine the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending and how many congressional seats each state gets. It starts for a few residents next week in a remote part of Alaska, but most people won’t be able to begin answering the questionnaire until mid-March.
    
“These deficiencies will result in a massive and differential undercount of communities of color,” the lawsuit said. “Such a dramatic undercount will especially dilute the votes of racial and ethnic minorities, deprive their communities of critical federal funds, and undervalue their voices and interests in the political arena.”
    
The Census Bureau didn’t immediately respond to an email for comment on Monday. The bureau plans to hire as many as 500,000 temporary workers, mostly to help knock on the doors of homes where people haven’t yet responded to the census. Although that is less than in 2010, the agency has said it doesn’t need as many workers this year because of technological advances, such as the ability of workers to collect information on their mobile devices.
    
An earlier version of the lawsuit was first filed in 2018, but it was dismissed by the district court. An appellate court last month ruled some of the claims could be raised again in the amended complaint filed Friday. In previous court papers, the Census Bureau has called the lawsuit “meritless.”

Trump Dismisses Dispute Over Whether Possible Soleimani Attack Was Imminent

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday dismissed as irrelevant questions about how imminent a threat Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani posed to American interests in the Middle East when Trump ordered a drone strike that killed him.

Trump offered no evidence supporting his claim that Soleimani was about to blow up four U.S. embassies, after key U.S. officials declined Sunday to say they had seen such a specific threat.

On Twitter, Trump said the mainstream U.S. news media and “their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was ‘imminent’ or not, & was my team in agreement. The answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!”

The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was “imminent” or not, & was my team in agreement. The answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020

He contended that opposition Democrats and the news media “are trying to make terrorist Soleimani into a wonderful guy, only because I did what should have been done for 20 years. Anything I do, whether it’s the economy, military, or anything else, will be scorned by the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats!”

The Democrats and the Fake News are trying to make terrorist Soleimani into a wonderful guy, only because I did what should have been done for 20 years. Anything I do, whether it’s the economy, military, or anything else, will be scorned by the Rafical Left, Do Nothing Democrats!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020

On Sunday, Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CBS News’ Face the Nation show, “I didn’t see the intelligence about Iran posing an imminent threat to four U.S. embassies, but I believe President Trump when he says there was one.”

The Pentagon chief added, “What I’m saying is I share the president’s view that probably- my expectation was they were going to go after our embassies.”

Esper, in another interview, told CNN’s State of the Union show, that he believed Soleimani was “days away” from launching an attack on U.S. facilities when the drone attack killed him Jan. 3.

Iran, in response, fired 16 ballistic missiles at bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed, although the U.S. says it knew of the attacks hours ahead of time, allowing forces to bunker in safety. There were no reports of U.S. casualties.

FILE – U.S. soldiers and journalists stand near a crater caused by Iranian bombing at Ain al-Asad air base, in Anbar, Iraq, Jan. 13, 2020.

In extensive Capitol Hill briefings on the Soleimani killing, lawmakers, including House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff, said Trump administration officials never mentioned the potential for attacks on the four embassies.

But U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien told the Fox News Sunday show, “They can trust us on this intelligence” about the threat posed by Soleimani.

But he said it was “always difficult to know the specifics” of threats, saying they came from Soleimani and the Quds Force. He said there were “very significant threats to American facilities in the region,” without acknowledging any specific threat to four embassies.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, leader of the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, told ABC’s This Week, “I don’t think the administration has been straight with the Congress of the United States.”

After Tehran fired the missiles at the U.S. forces in Iraq, Trump backed off earlier threats of further military attacks against Iran, instead imposing more economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

FILE – Various rates and prices for currencies and gold coins are displayed at an exchange bureau, in Tehran, Iran, Aug. 21, 2019.

O’Brien said the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran is working. “Iran is being choked off,” he said, making it difficult for Tehran to “get the money” for continued funding for its Quds Force military operations in the Mideast.

The U.S. has expressed the view that its economic sanctions against Tehran will eventually force it to renegotiate the 2015 international treaty restraining Iran’s nuclear program, the deal Trump withdrew the U.S. from.

But Trump, in a tweet late Sunday, seemed indifferent whether there are new negotiations with Tehran, saying, “Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and ‘don’t kill your protesters.'”

O’Brien said student protests in Tehran that started Saturday, after Iran admitted that it mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 aboard, in the hours after its attacks on the Iraqi bases, will also pressure Iranian leaders to renegotiate the nuclear treaty.

 

Queen Agrees to Let Harry, Meghan Move Part-Time to Canada

Queen Elizabeth II said Monday that she has agreed to grant Prince Harry and Meghan their wish for a more independent life that will see them move part-time to Canada.

The British monarch said in a statement that “today my family had very constructive discussions on the future of my grandson and his family.”

She said it had been “agreed that there will be a period of transition in which the Sussexes will spend time in Canada and the UK.” Harry and Meghan are also known as the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

FILE – Britain’s Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex react as they leave after her visit to Canada House in London, Jan. 7, 2020.

“These are complex matters for my family to resolve, and there is some more work to be done, but I have asked for final decisions to be reached in the coming days,” the queen said.

In a six-sentence statement that mentioned the word “family” six times, the queen said that “though we would have preferred them to remain full-time working Members of the Royal Family, we respect and understand their wish to live a more independent life as a family while remaining a valued part of my family.”

Monday’s meeting involved the queen, her heir Prince Charles and his sons William and Harry, with Meghan expected to join by phone from Canada.

Russia, Turkey Determined to Call the Shots in Libya

Talks between leaders of Libya’s two warring sides wrapped up Monday in Moscow, with Russia’s foreign minister noting some progress, a day after a fragile cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey came into force.

FILE – Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj leaves after an international conference on Libya at the Elysee Palace in Paris, May 29, 2018.

Russia and Turkey are emerging as key arbiters in the war-torn country, trying to push Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and his rival, renegade General Khalifa Haftar, to start agreeing to the outlines of a longer-term political settlement, one suiting both Ankara and Moscow.

On Monday, before talks started, al-Sarraj urged Libyans to “turn the page” on the turmoil of the past,” saying all Libyans should “reject discord and close ranks to move toward stability and peace.” He said the GNA had entered the cease-fire to end the bloodshed and that his beleaguered government is in “a position of strength to maintain national and social cohesion.”

Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar shakes hands with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu before talks in Moscow, Jan. 13, 2020. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation/Handout via Reuters)

The latest phase of the long-running violent turmoil that followed the 2011 ouster of then-dictator Moammar Gadhafi has been bogged down in stalemate for months.

The warring factions failed to sign the truce as scheduled Monday, and adjourned for further discussions Tuesday. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in the Russian capital he was confident they would ink the document, saying they viewed the document “positively.”

More than 280 civilians and about 2,000 fighters have been killed and 146,000 Libyans displaced since Haftar launched an assault last year on Tripoli, according to monitoring groups. Formerly one of Col. Gadhafi’s most trusted lieutenants, Haftar, since 2014, has been waging a campaign against the GNA, which is recognized by the U.S. and most Western states as the legitimate Libyan government.

Last week, his forces seized the coastal town of Sirte, Gadhafi’s birthplace and the scene of the ousted autocrat’s brutal death.

Both Russia and Turkey have much invested in Libya — Russia in terms of reputation, clout and potential oil deals, and Turkey with even more wide-ranging commercial interests, say analysts. They have been backing opposing sides in Libya, posing a risk to their fledgling, albeit competitive, partnership in northern Syria, where Moscow has accepted, at least temporarily, a Turkish military intervention against the Kurds. Moscow has also been working with Ankara to try to forge a post-war future for Syria that works for both the Turks and Russians and balances out their interests and influence.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Libya’s U.N.-recognized Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Istanbul, Turkey, Jan. 12, 2020.

The Libya cease-fire followed a joint call by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who backs al-Sarraj and has deployed troops to help the GNA — and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, who has been supporting Haftar. Hundreds of military contractors from Russia’s Wagner Group have been fighting alongside Haftar. The Wagner Group is a Kremlin-tied private military contractor whose mercenaries have been identified fighting in Syria and other hotspots on the side of Moscow’s allies.

Last week, President Putin said he was aware of the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya, but denied they were they on his command. “

If there are Russian citizens there, then they are not representing the interests of the Russian state and they are not receiving money from the Russian state,” he said.

Pro-Haftar forces are supported also by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. French officials have denied a charge by Sarraj that it has been tacitly supporting Haftar’s siege of the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

In December, Russian energy companies signed contracts with Libya’s National Oil Corporation for exploration. Turkey also is determined to establish a long-term partnership with Libya, formerly part of Turkey’s Ottoman empire. Turkish companies, which moved into Libya aggressively after the ouster of Gadhafi, are owed millions of dollars in unpaid business they conducted prior to 2014.

And in November, Erdogan signed signed memorandums with the GNA on security cooperation and maritime boundaries. The latter agreement, which Brussels says violates international law, secured in principle oil shale deposits in the Mediterranean Sea for Turkey. The memorandums between the GNA and Ankara prompted alarm in Moscow. Kremlin officials warned the deals — along with Erdogan’s announcement he would send troops to Libya to buttress the GNA — could derail peace negotiations scheduled for later this year in Berlin.

The increasing involvement of foreign forces and rival outside powers in Libya prompted German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week to warn that the country risked sliding into a Syria-like civil war.

FILE – German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives for the weekly cabinet meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Dec. 18, 2019.

The German leader has been supportive of the arbitration of Moscow and Ankara. And during a joint press conference Saturday with Putin in Moscow, she said, “We hope that the joint efforts by Russia and Turkey will lead to success, and we will soon send out invitations for a conference in Berlin.”

Analysts say the Europeans, the largest donors of humanitarian aid to Libya, have increasingly become bystanders as events unfold in the north African country — and are eager for someone, or anyone, to secure a resolution to a conflict that’s helped facilitate the movement of sub-Saharan migrants to Europe.

The European Union has been anything but united on which side to support in Libya, say Karim Mezran and Emily Burchfield, analysts with the U.S.-based research group the Atlantic Council. “

The main rift is between France, which claims to support the GNA, but has been linked to military and financial support to Haftar; and Italy, which aligns with the United Nations in backing Sarraj. The clash between Italy and France over Libya has contributed to the failure of international efforts to develop a political solution for the conflict, they say.

Without European leadership on Libya, Russia and Turkey have found it easier to insert themselves into the conflict,” they added.

 

 

 

 

Storms Kill 11 in US South, as East Enjoys Spring-Like Weather

It looked more like April than January across parts of the eastern U.S. after powerful spring-like storms pummeled several states over the weekend.

Tornadoes, floods, and hurricane-strength winds killed at least 11 people in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Alabama.

About 200,000 people were without electricity Sunday as the strong storms blew down power lines, overturned cars, and tore up trees.

Gusty winds also knocked out power along the East Coast while flood warnings were out Sunday in several other southern states.

Meanwhile, millions in the Northeast let their winter coats hang in the closet Sunday as record-breaking warmth gave a treat to runners, golfers, and just about anyone who loves the outdoors.

Thermometers reached highs of 22 Celsius in Boston and 20 in New York City and Washington, D.C.

Meteorologists say an intense polar vortex — frigid air in high altitudes surrounded by powerful winds — has been keeping the cold in the Arctic.

But forecasters say the East can expect more January-like temperatures the rest of the week.

 

US-China Trade War Seen as Boosting Vietnam Growth

Vietnam will enjoy the fastest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2020, according to a new forecast from British multinational investment bank HSBC.

Vietnam has been a beneficiary of the China-U.S. trade war, enjoying a boost in services and exports that should drive economic growth to 7% this year, HSBC economist Yun Liu said last week. But she said the country remains vulnerable to economic risks including trade protection and inflation.

Inflation is increasing as swine flu forces up the price of pork, showing how a single product can weigh on the economic indicators of an entire nation of nearly 100 million people. Vietnam also fears rising inflation if simmering Middle East tensions continue to push up oil prices.

Nevertheless, Liu predicted the communist nation’s “impressive” economic performance will give it another “year in the 7% club,” outshining fast-growing Myanmar, the Philippines, and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Nintendo, Apple

Liu noted that some of the biggest names in technology, ranging from Nintendo to Google, are relocating to Vietnam, probably because the trade war is making production in China more expensive.

FILE – A shop in Hanoi sells electronics, which are becoming a big export product for Vietnam.

“Likely due to the trade tensions that have accelerated multinational corporations’ relocation decisions, many tech giants, including Apple, Google, Nintendo and Kyocera, have now followed in Samsung’s footsteps and plan to move parts of their production to Vietnam,” Liu forecast

Samsung, the Korean smartphone giant, already accounts for close to one quarter of Vietnam’s exports, but others are following the same path. Total electronics exports to the United States rose 76% in the first 11 months of 2019, as U.S. tariffs made Chinese-made phones more expensive for Americans.

“Contrary to many Asian countries which have seen a contraction in industrial activity, Vietnam’s manufacturing sector remained resilient [in 2019], contributing 30% to headline GDP growth,” Liu said.

Also contributing to GDP growth are increases in tourism and private consumption among Vietnamese citizens themselves.

Risks

The solid growth has brought renewed risk of inflation, a problem Hanoi had mostly brought under control in recent years. Prices last month rose by 5.2% on an annualized basis — the highest monthly figure since January 2014. Economists attribute the unexpected jump in part to higher pork prices.

FILE – A butcher in Ho Chi Minh City sells pork, whose price increases are feeding fears of inflation in Vietnam.

“The economy faces two key risks over the coming year,” said Gareth Leather, a senior Asia economist, in an analysis for research company Capital Economics. Citing trade protectionism as one risk, he said the other “is the outbreak of African swine fever, which has led to a sharp rise in pork prices.”

Liu agrees. She said Vietnam faces “a confluence of factors including higher pork demand in the run-up to the Tet holidays [Lunar New Year] and likely competition with mainland China on pork imports as the latter has recently lowered pork tariffs.”

The regional minimum wage in Vietnam has also increased, while oil prices around the world spiked after a U.S. airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. Leather said the most vulnerable Asian nations are Vietnam, India and China.

He also voiced a widely held sentiment regarding Vietnam’s trade imbalance with the United States. “Vietnam’s growing bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. could lead to retaliatory action,” Leather said.

 

2020 Is Off to an Alarming, Chaotic Start

A violent mob assault on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The targeted killing of an Iranian general ordered by President Donald Trump. An accidental missile strike of a Ukrainian commercial airliner. A tightening of U.S. economic sanctions on Iran. The detention of the British ambassador in Tehran.

We are barely beyond the first week of a new year and a new decade, but already the alarming and chaotic news coming out of the Middle East makes it difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding for what’s to come. Historical forces seem to be moving on paths impossible to identify precisely, but lead in the general direction of danger, political analysts and historians say.

And all this takes place at a time when the world already had plenty to worry about.

Trump has been impeached and awaits a trial seeking his removal from office that could begin in the Senate later this week. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un continues to threaten the U.S. and has declared that he will no longer observe a ban on nuclear tests. Overseas, Australia is on fire. Britain is edging ever closer to Brexit.

A Middle East on the edge

With the crisis in the Middle East one miscalculation away from spiraling out of control, and a suite of other international fires to put out, many key posts in the Trump administration’s national security apparatus are filled by unconfirmed officials or sit empty altogether.

It’s little wonder that newspapers across the country are running stories on the rise in the number of people seeking mental health care for anxiety.

At times like these, a little historical perspective can be helpful.

FILE – Iranians burn an Israeli and a U.S. flag during an anti-U.S. protest in the capital Tehran, Jan. 4, 2020, over the killings of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Parallels to 1968

Robert Dallek, noted historian and author, points out that this is not the first time the United States has been beset by seemingly overwhelming problems.

“You know, we’ve been through many difficult moments,” Dallek said in an interview with VOA. “Like 1968, when the country was locked into the war in Vietnam and you had inner-city riots, and [Lyndon] Johnson announced he wasn’t going to run for president again.”

At the time, a travel agency in France was pitching vacations in the United States with the tagline, “See America while it lasts,” Dallek said.

“It was a time when people also thought that America was slowly coming to an end and might be heading into a new Civil War, and so there are echoes of that here,” he said. However, he stressed that there are reasons to be hopeful. The United States did not descend into war, the war in Vietnam eventually came to an end, and civil unrest abated.

None of this, however, is to suggest that the real anxiety Americans feel is misplaced or imagined. Perhaps the most stressful issue facing Americans right now is the crisis unfolding in the Middle East.

Attack on US Embassy in Baghdad

On New Year’s Eve, Americans woke up to the news that the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone was under siege by a mob that had broken into a reception area and set part of the structure on fire. The protests followed a December 29 U.S strike against Iranian-backed Kataeb Hezbollah sites in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the killing of a U.S. civilian contractor near the Iraqi city of Kirkuk two days earlier. The Pentagon announced that it was dispatching troops to the region, a number that quickly grew into the thousands.

FILE – Pro-Iranian militiamen and their supporters set a fire in front of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, Jan. 1, 2020.

Later on Twitter, Trump promised retribution if the attackers, reported to have connections to an Iran-backed militia group, harmed embassy personnel or damaged U.S. property. “This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!” he wrote.

US drone strike on Soleimani

Two days later, shortly after landing at Baghdad International Airport, General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s notorious Quds Force, was killed in a drone strike that had been personally ordered by Trump.

Soleimani, who directed operations that have led to the killing of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq and untold thousands of civilian deaths across the Middle East, was generally considered the second-most-powerful figure in the Iranian government.

Iran, promising revenge, observed three days of mourning for Soleimani before launching missiles at two installations in Iraq housing American military personnel. There was reason to believe that the missile strikes were more symbolic than dangerous.

But any hope that the limited Iranian response might reduce the tension in the region was dashed just hours later, when a Ukrainian jetliner with 176 travelers on board crashed outside Tehran. By the weekend, it had become clear that nervous Iranian air defense forces, on alert for U.S. retaliation after the strikes in Iraq, shot down the plane by accident, a fact that Iran eventually admitted.

FILE – A picture of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, killed in a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad airport, is seen on a building which formerly housed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 7, 2020.

More sanctions for Iran

The United States announced Friday morning that it would impose new economic sanctions on Iran. These would come on top of existing penalties that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has described as the most punishing the U.S. has ever levied on another country. Many Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans complained that Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other senior administration officials have misled Congress and the public in arguing that Suleimani had posed an “imminent” threat.

In Tehran on Saturday, the ambassador of Britain was arrested and held for several hours after attending a vigil for the 176 people killed in the attack on the Ukrainian airliner. The highly unusual step by Iran was accompanied by accusations that the diplomat incited street protests against the Iranian regime, a charge the British government hotly denied.

Within the U.S., the collective response to the unfolding crisis in the Middle East has been unease about where all this will end. Social media has been rife with references — some joking, some not — to an imminent World War III. But experts point out the likelihood of all-out war between the United States and Iran is low.

At the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, professor of political science Michael Horowitz and senior fellow Elizabeth Saunders wrote Friday, “Blowback may be coming, and the U.S. strike against Soleimani may increase the risk of bad outcomes short of an all-out war. Those are reasons for concern. But it’s critical to distinguish such consequences from a general war.”

They added, “There will no doubt be consequences — but general war remains unlikely.”

FILE – Various rates and prices for currencies and gold coins are displayed at an exchange bureau, in Tehran, Iran, Aug. 21, 2019.

A desire for ‘normalcy’

Dallek, the presidential historian, said that in his view, the most likely outcome of a lengthy period of civic stress is an electorate primed for a return to perceived normalcy. This is something the Democrats are counting on as the 2020 presidential campaign heats up.

“I think the outcome of all this is going to be like in 1968, when the country wanted to get back to some kind of continuity,” Dallek said.

It was that election in 1968, of course, that gave the United States the Nixon presidency.

 

Managed Uzbek Election Exposes Mix of Reform and Inertia

The Dec. 22 parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan highlighted the complex mix of change and inertia that characterizes this Central Asian country today.

In Almalyk, an industrial town in the Tashkent region, leading journalist Dilfuza Ruziyeva said corruption is still deeply rooted, even so close to the country’s capital.

“There is very little accountability and transparency despite reform efforts and bold statements from Tashkent,” said Ruziyeva, the chief editor of the local newspaper.

Yet modest changes abound. Uzbekistan’s politicians, however befuddled they sometimes seem by the new need to respond to voters, were compelled to acknowledge and then commit to address citizens’ growing demands.

Indeed, Uzbekistan’s political class, which has long had a sense of insulation and impunity, now seems to recognize, sometimes quite explicitly, that it owes the public real answers to real problems.

Take Senator Rahmatulla Nazarov, who is shifting jobs to manage a think tank. In an impromptu interview with VOA at his suburban Tashkent polling station, he acknowledged that “distrust in the system is the biggest problem.”

Such an acknowledgement — an admission that the system has simply not been responsive to citizen concerns — has become common here, and it is changing the political discourse.

Alisher Qodirov, who leads Milliy Tiklanish (National Revival Party), told VOA that “for the longest time, we punished those who wanted change and pushed for progress. We tortured them, we killed them … we kicked them out. We must learn to honor the human being, ideas and human rights. Only then can Uzbekistan move forward as a society and state.”

His party claims to be the most critical of the government among the five parties that were permitted to contest the election. In fact, none of the state-sanctioned parties really opposes the policies of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev; what has changed is that the lack of real opposition can now be openly discussed.

At a pre-election debate Dec. 19, VOA asked party leaders whether they should place a higher value on security or freedom. All five leaders replied that both were important and made sure to claim to be against torture and the abuse of human rights.

Yet they offered few, if any, specific policy proposals for achieving a more balanced system. Indeed, all five struggled to explain more specific policy positions, much less differences, perhaps because so little sets them apart, and because the president, not the parties or the legislature, sets the agenda for the country. Reforms happen when Mirziyoyev wants them.

Adolat (Justice Party) leader and former presidential candidate Narimon Umarov bluntly says the political elite “did what we had to do” during the rule of the late dictator Islam Karimov, and urges citizens to “focus on the present and future now.” He says Uzbek politicians should feel “challenged in every way” by public expectations, while adding that he is personally “hopeful and energized.”

Aktam Haitov, leader of Mirziyoyev’s own Liberal Democratic Party (O’zLiDep), argues that the party deserves credit for the progress so far. O’zLiDep says it is pushing for deeper reforms in agriculture and to empower the private sector, precisely reflecting Mirziyoyev’s stated policy goals.

Ulugbek Inoyatov is a teacher who became education minister and has been widely criticized for not being effective in that role. Now, he leads Uzbekistan’s People’s Democratic Party and acknowledges that “the election campaign was a learning process for me.”

Inoyatov’s party did not have prescriptions for every problem, and its program still lacks substance. But he stresses the benefits of the improved process: “This campaign and our engagement with the people around the country is helping us to strengthen our focus,” he said.

It is easy to dismiss the electoral process, as many international observers have. Uzbekistan is neither a constitutional democracy nor on the way to becoming one. But by creating an opening for social mobilization, for citizens to question authorities, and by forcing the politicians to respond to public expectations and demands, the process marked a step toward more diverse politics.

More questions on more issues were openly aired than at any time in recent memory, including by the media. At live debates, the press corps was aggressive. And not surprisingly, the party representatives on stage seemed nervous, confused and at times forgot why they were even there.

It was long forbidden to discuss the government’s refusal to allow visits to Uzbekistan by thousands of overseas Uzbek natives, citizens and non-citizens alike. Some fear they are on blacklists, while others are simply denied entry. But during the election debate, the leaders of all five parties felt compelled to say that the country is — or should be — open to these compatriots.  

The next challenge will be to see whether the newly elected parliament can exercise more meaningful oversight of the administration.

Akmal Burhanov, a reelected MP, is calling for an end to the practice whereby legislators also operate businesses or even serve simultaneously as regional governors. Those who are elected today should work as lawmakers only if they are to provide an effective check on the government, he said.

That is why the biggest tests are yet to come. The parliament is more representative than ever before for instance, nearly one-third of its members are women, the most in its history. But as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe noted the day after the contest, “The elections showed that the ongoing reforms need to continue and be accompanied by more opportunities for grassroot civic initiatives.”

Chance to Vote Boosted Uzbeks’ Hopes Despite Limited Choices

The morning of Dec. 22, dawned cold but bright in Tashkent, the Uzbek capital, as a morning snowfall gave way to afternoon light. For the first time since the death in 2016 of the country’s longtime strongman, Islam Karimov, voters went to the polls to choose a parliament and local councils.

For the first time also, they projected the heightened expectations of a much more mobilized and aware citizenry, despite their low opinion of the current crop of candidates for the so-far toothless legislature.

“Members of parliament have no trust or respect [from] the citizens because citizens don’t feel their impact,” said Kamil Fakhrutdinov, a blogger in the region of Kashkadarya. His Yakkabog24 focuses on once-forbidden socio-political issues.

Meaningful change

Three weeks after the election, it is apparent that something meaningful has changed in this Central Asian republic, even though the electoral process itself was flawed and the country remains an authoritarian regime.

Even this highly circumscribed election gave citizens and the media space to ask questions that would have been unthinkable just three years ago.

“We are not the same passive society we were three years ago,” Fakhrutdinov told VOA. “So those who want to represent us must know that they will have been gifted [with] a trust and charged with working for the people.”

Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Since coming to power three years ago, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has announced a spate of reforms and changed some elements of this once brutal dictatorship. He has openly acknowledged the country’s legacy of torture and human rights abuses, removed from power the feared leader of the Uzbek security services, and dismissed dozens of national and local officials, including from the country’s coercive apparatus, such as the prosecutor’s office.

But Mirziyoyev’s hopeful words and modest actions have raised expectations sky-high, not just among international observers but, more important, among Uzbek citizens themselves. Uzbekistan is no democracy, but its citizens approached their first post-Karimov opportunity to cast votes with very real expectations for change.

Across the country, from Tashkent to regional cities like Namangan in the Fergana Valley, the process raised hopes that in the future Mirziyoyev might undertake bolder reforms and adopt enduring systemic changes. But the management of the Dec. 22 election also served to demonstrate the limits to the president’s reform agenda.

Five parties, little difference

The central problem for Mirziyoyev is that he aims to preserve the core elements of Uzbekistan’s political and economic system, and his own power, even as he opens greater space for rulers and ruled to interact. His government permitted five parties to contest seats, but all five were pro-presidential parties, chartered by the state and with proposed policies that varied not at all from Mirziyoyev’s and very little from one another’s.

No opposition parties, or opposition politicians in exile, were permitted to participate.

The Uzbek parliament itself has been historically weak. In interviews with members of the Mirziyoyev administration, as well as with the private sector, the most common criticism of parliamentarians was their lack of professionalism. Many fail to grasp even the basics of lawmaking and oversight.

That has been much on the minds of those who showed up at polling stations on voting day.

Namangan-based human rights defender Zohidjon Zakirov told VOA that voters in his region knew very little about parliamentary or local council elections, much less who was running or for what office. That sentiment was echoed in comments to VOA at polling stations.

To be sure, the voters were interested in the election. But few had illusions that meaningful changes could be expected from the candidates, who often seemed confused about why they were running, or what policies they would espouse should they win a seat.

Even so, the cynicism among the voters found expression in ways that, in themselves, suggested just how much has changed in Uzbekistan. For decades, the Uzbek media have been tightly controlled and a reliable mouthpiece of the state. But private journalists and bloggers found their voices in this contest. They asked tough questions of the candidates at state-organized debates.

In recent weeks, a humorous fake television advertisement, “As Much As We Can,” lampooned the electoral process, making fun of all five of the officially sanctioned parties by noting that they had simply promised to do “as much as we can.” The video and other commentary directly addressed the lack of substance and relevance in the political parties’ agendas.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR), which monitored the election, issued an official statement emphasizing that while the vote “took place under improved legislation and with greater tolerance of independent voices,” it “did not yet demonstrate genuine competition and full respect of election day procedures.”

Still, it added, “The contesting parties presented their political platforms and the media hosted debates, many aired live.” For a country that was among the world’s worst dictatorships just three years ago, that is notable progress that will raise citizen expectations all the more.

VIDEOS: Iranians Protest Military’s Role in Downing of Plane

Hundreds of Iranians protested in several cities around the country Saturday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps admitted to mistakenly shooting down a civilian Ukrainian plane, killing all 176 on board.

In Tehran, students of Sharif University, also known as Iran’s MIT, chant, “Referendum is our people’s salvation!”

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The protests were not limited to Tehran. People in the northern city of Rasht called Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his allies “shameless.”

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Anti-riot police watch protesters near Amirkabir University in Tehran.

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Protest videos show some demonstrators shouting, “Down with the dictator!” and calling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a “traitor,” near Tehran’s Polytechnic (Amirkabir) University.

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In a video posted to filmmaker Jafar Panahi’s Instagram account, police fire tear gas at demonstrators near near Amirkabir University in Tehran.

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Protesters near Sharif University in Tehran chant, “Our leader is ignorant and a source of shame.”

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* VOA could not independently verify the authenticity of these videos.

A New Law on Forcible Displacement Gives Thousands of Salvadorans a New Lease on Life

El Salvador has passed a new law on internally displaced people that the U.N. refugee agency says will offer a new lease on life for tens of thousands of victims forcibly displaced by gang violence and organized crime.

The U.N. refugee agency reports gang violence has forcibly displaced an estimated 71,500 Salvadorans between 2006 and 2016 within their own country.  Over the last few years, the agency reports the malign grip of organized crime in El Salvador and other countries in Central America has sent an increasing number of people fleeing to the United States in search of protection.  

UNHCR spokeswoman Liz Throssell tells VOA internal displacement as a result of organized crime and criminal gangs continues to be an extremely serious problem in El Salvador and Honduras.

“So, what we are doing is we are welcoming the fact that the Salvadoran authorities are really taking this first step to address the problem of internal displacement,” Throssell said. “I think clearly, if there are efforts to prevent internal displacement, that is also going to have a knock-on effect to external displacement.” 

These are still early days, as El Salvador’s National Assembly just passed the law on Friday and has yet to be implemented.  The law aims to protect, aid and offer solutions to the tens of thousands of victims of forced displacement.  Under its provisions they would gain access to humanitarian aid and have basic rights restored, including effective access to justice.

Throssell says the law could have a lasting positive impact on the lives of the more than 70,000 uprooted by gang violence once it is signed into law by President Nayib Bukele.

“The law reflects the growing momentum in Central America and beyond to recognize and respond to the phenomenon of internal displacement,” Throssell said. “In Honduras, where an estimated 247,000 people have been displaced by violence within their own country, the National Congress is considering legislation similar to the law passed in El Salvador.” 

Throssell says Mexico also recognizes the serious impact of internal displacement and has expressed its commitment to pass similar legislation at the federal level.

Why EU Powers Rejected Trump’s Call to Leave Iran Nuclear Deal

European powers have rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for them to join him in abandoning the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with several factors pushing them to try to keep the deal alive, analysts say.

After European Union foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in Brussels Friday to discuss escalating Middle East tensions, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said the 28-nation bloc will keep doing whatever it can to save the deal. Under the agreement, world powers offered Iran relief from international sanctions in return for limits on its nuclear program.

Trump had called on the JCPOA’s three EU signatories — Britain, France and Germany, all traditional U.S. allies — to “break away” from the deal in a Wednesday speech detailing his response to Iranian missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq the previous day. Iran launched the attacks, which caused no casualties, in retaliation for what the U.S. called a self-defensive strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad last week.

President Donald Trump addresses the nation on the ballistic missile strike that Iran launched against Iraqi air bases housing U.S. troops, Jan. 8, 2020, in Washington, as Vice President Mike Pence and others looks on.

“The very defective JCPOA expires shortly anyway, and gives Iran a clear and quick path to nuclear [weapon] breakout. The time has come for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China to recognize this reality,” Trump said. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

“We want to save this deal if it’s possible,” Borrell told reporters after chairing the EU foreign ministers’ talks in Brussels. “Thanks to this deal, Iran is not a nuclear power,” he added.

Dispute resolution mechanism

Borrell also said the EU powers had not discussed triggering the JCPOA’s dispute-resolution mechanism in response to Iran’s series of breaches of JCPOA limits on nuclear activities in recent months or its latest threat to scrap restrictions on uranium enrichment, a process that can be diverted to nuclear bomb-making.

Diplomats have warned that Britain, France and Germany could activate the agreement’s dispute mechanism if Iran does not return to full compliance. Such an activation could lead to a U.N. Security Council “snapback” of international sanctions on Iran, a move that Tehran has said would prompt it to quit the deal and end any remaining restraints on its nuclear program.

Trump has vowed that he will never allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon and refused to rule out military action to prevent such an outcome.

One factor pushing EU powers to try to keep the JCPOA alive is the fear that triggering a dispute process that leads to a U.N. sanctions snapback could push the U.S. and Iran into a war.

“Any conflict between Iran and the U.S. will happen at the EU’s doorstep, and they will be the ones who will pay a price for it, in the form of waves of refugees and radicalization that would end up on European shores,” said Ali Vaez, an International Crisis Group analyst, in a VOA Persian interview.

FILE – A handout picture released by Iran, Nov. 4, 2019, shows the atomic enrichment facilities at Nataz nuclear power plant.

EU powers also appear to be waiting for Iran to make the next move in its series of JCPOA breaches.

Tehran has yet to say when and by how much it will expand uranium enrichment, as it threatened to do after the Jan. 3 U.S. killing of Soleimani. Tehran also has said the International Atomic Energy Agency can keep monitoring its nuclear sites and the JCPOA breaches are reversible if European powers help the Iranian economy to circumvent crushing U.S. sanctions.

Hudson Institute analyst Michael Doran told VOA Persian that Iran would have to behave so brazenly in any further breaches of the JCPOA that it generates a backlash for EU powers to feel compelled to trigger the dispute mechanism.

“I think the Iranians understand that it’s not in their interests do that, so they will calibrate their nuclear steps very carefully,” he said. 

Waiting game

As EU powers wait for U.N. inspectors to verify the extent of Iran’s breaches of the JCPOA before deciding their next move, the U.S. may not exercise the same degree of patience. 

A State Department legal opinion reported by the Associated Press last month said the U.S. has a legal avenue to demand a snapback of U.N. sanctions without waiting for the JCPOA’s joint commission to conclude its dispute process. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018, saying it was not tough enough on Iran.

Trump’s Republican allies in Congress, including Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, have urged him to invoke the U.N. snapback of sanctions in response to Iran’s threat to back out of JCPOA limits on uranium enrichment. U.S. officials have not said whether they will heed that call.

Trump critics have disputed the State Department’s legal opinion, saying the U.S. can only trigger the U.N. snapback if it actively participates in the JCPOA and its dispute mechanism. 

“I’ve talked with the Europeans, Russians and Chinese. No one recognizes that interpretation that the U.S. has, so they don’t take this threat seriously,” Vaez said. 

EU powers also face little pressure from their domestic constituencies to walk away from the nuclear deal. 

“This is not a top priority for the European public,” Vaez said. “There are a lot of other issues they care about more, like the future of trade, the NATO alliance and 5G mobile technology.” 

This article originated in VOA’s Persian Service.
 

Wildlife Catastrophe Caused by Australian Bushfires

More than 1 billion animals have been killed in bushfires in the Australian state of New South Wales, according to leading wildlife experts.

Bushfires have had a terrible impact on Australia. Lives have been lost, thousands of homes destroyed and vast areas of land incinerated. The disaster has also had catastrophic consequences for animals. Images of badly burned koalas, Australia’s famous furry marsupials, have come to define the severity of the fire emergency.

The University of Sydney has estimated that more than 1 billion mammals, birds and reptiles, as well as “hundreds of billions” of insects have died in the fires. Experts have warned that “for some species we are looking at imminent extinction.”

They also fear that animals that have survived the fires by fleeing or seeking safety underground will return to areas that will not have the food, water or shelter to support them. 

FILE – Veterinarians and volunteers treat injured and burned koalas at Kangaroo Island Wildlife Park on Kangaroo Island, southwest of Adelaide, Australia.

Saving the zoo animals

At zoos and wildlife reserves, staff risked their lives protecting the animals in their care.

As fires tore through the town of Mogo on the New South Wales south coast on New Year’s Eve, there were grave fears for the animals at the local zoo. Remarkably, they all survived, but the property is badly damaged.

Chad Staples, the head keeper, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation about his decision to stay to fight the flames.

“We have a lot of damaged fences,” he said. “The good thing is that we saved every single animal, there is no injuries, there’s no sickness. We had to stay here and protect them. We knew that this was the best place that we, if we worked hard, could make this a safe place. But, yeah, of course, I think everyone, at [a] different point, was scared out of their wits.”

Farm animals perish

Tens of thousands of farm animals also have likely died in the bushfire disaster.

Farmers have been forced to euthanize injured stock. The losses could run into the millions of dollars.

Only when the fires clear will Australia be able to more accurately assess the full extent of the damage on livestock and wildlife.

Dozens of fires continue to burn across several Australian states.

IS Gloats at Iran General’s Death, Says It Pleased Muslims

The Islamic State group gloated over the recent U.S. killing of a senior Iranian general, who rose to prominence by advising forces fighting the extremists.

In the first IS comments since Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s slaying, the group said his death “pleased the hearts of believers.” The editorial was released in the group’s al-Nabaa online newspaper late Thursday.

Although the U.S. and Iran strictly avoided working together directly, they were once on the same side in the fight against IS. Neither side wants to see the extremists stage a comeback.

But as the various players in Iraq jockey to come out ahead in a post-Soleimani landscape, Islamic State militants may find an opening. Thousands of fighters are scattered among the group’s sleeper cells, and have claimed attacks in both Iraq and neighboring Syria in recent months.

As the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, Soleimani was one of the main commanders on the ground spearheading the fight against IS. He sent thousands of Iran-backed fighters to Iraq and Syria to battle the extremists, and directed Iraqi Shiite militias as well. A top Iraqi militia commander was killed alongside Soleimani in last week’s U.S. drone strike.

The IS editorial said that its members tried for years to kill the two commanders, but that “God brought their end at the hands of their allies.” It said both men “have gone too far in shedding the blood of Muslims in Iraq and Syria.”

Iraq’s caretaker prime minister has now asked Washington to start working out a road map for withdrawing the more than 5,000 American troops in Iraq, in response to Soleimani’s killing. But the U.S. State Department on Friday bluntly rejected the request.

Iraqis have felt furious and helpless at being caught in the middle of fighting between Baghdad’s two closest allies.

 

 

Ethnic Violence in DR Congo Triggers Possible Crimes Against Humanity

The United Nations human rights office accused members of the ethnic-Lendu community in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ituri Province of mass violations against the ethnic Hema community, which could constitute crimes against humanity.

Inter-ethnic tensions between the Lendu and Hema communities over land and other resources have gone on for decades.  But the U.N. human rights office reports those disputes have spiraled out of control and become particularly dangerous and alarming.  

A U.N. investigation from December 2017 to September 2019 found more than 700 people were killed, 168 injured and at least 143 people sexually violated in the territories of Djugu and Mahagi in DRC’s Ituri Province.  U.N. human rights spokesman Rupert Colville said most of the perpetrators are Lendu and most of the victims are Hema.

“The report documents numerous cases of women being raped, of children—some in school uniforms—being killed, and of looting and burning of villages,” he said. “The violence could contain some elements of crimes against humanity through murder, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence, pillage and persecution.”  

The report said the barbarity of the attacks reflects the desire of the attackers to inflict lasting trauma to the Hema communities and force them to flee and not return to their homes.  The U.N. said schools and health clinics were attacked and destroyed, houses and villages burned to the ground.  The attacks occurred in June and December during the harvest and planting seasons and aimed to prevent the Hema from cultivating their land and have them experience food shortages.

Colville told VOA those tactics have some characteristics of genocide.  But he said the burden of proof for genocide is so high one has to be very cautious before jumping to such conclusions.  

“I think what they are doing in the report is just flagging this element is there,” he said. “It is inter-ethnic.  It appears to be targeting on a big scale.  It is organized and systematic, and there are elements that could lead to, perhaps depending on what happens in the future to a characterization of genocide.  But it is a very tentative reference.  It is not dwelled on at any length.” 

The U.N. human rights office recommended DRC authorities address the root causes of the Lendu-Hema conflict, urged authorities to conduct an independent and impartial investigation into the violence, and to compensate the victims.

South Sudan’s First VP Denies Allegations of Human Rights Abuses

South Sudanese First Vice President Taban Deng Gai is denying allegations of human rights abuses and criticizing U.S. sanctions against him.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Deng on Wednesday. Officials say Deng arranged and directed the deaths of two prominent activists — human rights lawyer Samuel Dong Luak and opposition politician Aggrey Iddri — and tried to derail South Sudan’s peace process. Conflict broke out in 2013 following a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and then-Vice President Riek Machar.

The U.S. government also says Deng worked to divide opposition opponents and members of the broader ethnic Nuer community who were displaced because of the conflict. Officials say he directed the actions to solidify his position within Kiir’s government and to intimidate members of the SPLM-IO, of which Iddri was a member.

FILE – Children play with a suitcase in a displaced persons camp for the Nuer ethnic group inside the UNMISS compound in Bor, South Sudan, Feb. 27, 2014.

Deng called the sanctions “regrettable and baseless.”

The U.S. move is the latest in a series of sanctions against South Sudanese individuals.

The Treasury Department accuses South Sudan’s government of refusing to create “political space for dissenting voices, from opposition parties, ethnic groups, civil society, or media,” an issue it said has been a key factor in the country’s inability to implement a peace agreement and ongoing acts of violence against civilians.

In September 2018, Kiir and Machar signed a revitalized peace agreement that called for the formation of a national unity government by May 2019. Government and opposition leaders extended that deadline twice, but have not taken steps to create a unified national army — one of the measures seen as key to implementing the peace deal. The biggest remaining obstacle between the government and the opposition is the dispute over the number of states and their boundaries.

Kiir and Machar are scheduled to form the unity government in February.

Defending Deng 

Deng’s office manager defended his boss and his activities.

“In discharging his duties as the first vice president of the Republic of South Sudan, he dedicated and committed himself to working for the unity and peaceful co-existence among the people of South Sudan to secure a future for them,” Adel Sandrai told VOA.

The U.S. said the sanctions fall under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, which targets perpetrators of serious human rights abuse and corruption.

FILE – South Sudan’s First Vice President Taban Deng Gai, left, speaks with President Salva Kiir after Taban was sworn in, replacing opposition leader Riek Machar, at the presidential palace in Juba, South Sudan, July 26, 2016.

The Treasury Department noted in its statement that since the September 2018 peace deal, which included a permanent cease-fire, hundreds of civilians have been killed, raped and abducted. It said the U.S. will not hesitate to target individuals who have perpetuated the conflict.

Sandrai maintains that Deng has worked to restore peace in South Sudan.

“Despite the sanctions wrongly imposed on him, H.E General Taban Deng Gai pledges to continue to work with the United States and the international community to demonstrate such commitment and to prove the unfounded nature of the allegations against him,” Sandrai said.

The sanctions freeze all cash or assets held in the U.S. and block Deng from accessing the American financial system.

Next steps

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, professor of political science at the University of Juba, said Kiir should fire the officials already on the list of people sanctioned by the United States.

“The president should be able to redeem himself by trying to make sure he disassociates himself from the people who have already been sanctioned and the people who have become spoilers to the peace agreement,” Nyuon told VOA’s South Sudan in Focus program.

Nyuon said he believes the only way Kiir can turn things around is by convincing the international community he is ready to cooperate.

“All the people around the president are already sanctioned and now the United States is seriously watching every step of the president,” Nyuon said.

In December, the U.S. sanctioned Defense Minister Kuol Manyang Juuk and Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro, saying they fueled the five-year conflict and obstructed peace in South Sudan, the world’s youngest country. Five other South Sudanese were sanctioned last month.  
 

Vietnamese Investors More Cautious with Tech Startups

Vietnamese startups are heading into the new year looking to avoid the mistakes of such companies as Uber and WeWork, which disappointed investors in 2019 for failing to turn a profit after so much buildup.

Investors and entrepreneurs in the communist nation are taking a more critical look at their businesses after seeing others get burned overseas. WeWork, which rents out shared workspaces, was seen as a cautionary tale of a startup that did not live up to expectations and was not profitable.

For years, investors were willing to back losing businesses to gain market share. But now, there is more scrutiny of new investments.

Benchmarks set

The Vietnam Innovative Startup Accelerator (VIISA) requires its technology startups to meet a list of benchmarks throughout their time in the program.

“Apart from very intuitive selection criteria that all applying startups have to go through, the program has introduced a new development measurement method, which helps us to capture the progress of startups that are accepted into VIISA,” Hieu Vo, a board member and chief financial officer at VIISA, said. “I think this process will bring out the best in each person for the particular business they have founded and committed to.”

Vo said his colleagues sit down with startups when they join the accelerator to discuss key performance indicators, or KPI, that will be set as goals. VIISA also does training for the young businesses so they have quantifiable skills, such as how to structure a business deal, or how to set up their accounting system.

Having metrics and ratings, Vo said, supports “both business performance, as well as personal transformation of founders.”

Founder scrutiny

The founder as an individual has become a point of scrutiny for investors, who used to be more forgiving of an eccentric or aggressive founder, seen as part of the package to have a tech genius head an innovative business. But there has been a backlash among those who think too much permissiveness can damage a business, from the sexual misconduct amid the workplace culture of Uber, to the conflicts of interest in business decisions at WeWork.

It helps to not just think short term and to have an outside perspective, according to Pham Manh Ha, founder and chief executive officer of Beekrowd, an investment platform in Ho Chi Minh City.

“As a first-time founder, it seems impossible for us to look beyond the first six months to a year of our business,” he said, adding that experienced third parties can help businesses take the long view. “They stand outside the trees that are blocking us from seeing the forest.”

To see the forest, Vietnamese businesses like his are taking a more measured approach. Vietnam has seen an escalation of tech startups, as investors have rushed to put their money to work and take advantage of the economy’s fast growth.

They also remember the dot-com bubble in the United States, and the more recent global tech bubble, two reminders for caution.

US Plutonium Production Plan Likely to Spur Legal Challenge

The agency that oversees the United States’ nuclear arsenal says it doesn’t need to do any broad environmental reviews of a proposal that calls for ramping up production of plutonium triggers at federal installations in New Mexico and South Carolina.

The National Nuclear Security Administration on Wednesday released a supplemental analysis related to the project, saying the determination was made after reviewing extensive documentation and public comments that were received last year.

Nuclear watchdogs, government accountability advocates and other critics argue that the decision skirts requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act and a decades-old court order that included a mandate for an environmental review when the federal government embarked on plans to boost production to more than 80 of the nuclear cores a year.

A key component of every nuclear weapon, most of the plutonium cores in the stockpile were produced in the 1970s and 1980s, according to the nuclear agency.

FILE – Barrels of radioactive waste are loaded for transport to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, at the Radioactive Assay Nondestructive Testing (RANT) facility in Los Alamos, N.M., April 9, 2019.

Federal officials have set a deadline of 2030 for ramped-up core production, with work being split between Los Alamos National Laboratory in northern New Mexico and the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. At stake are jobs and billions of dollars in federal funding that would be needed to revamp existing buildings or construct new factories to support the work.

The NNSA said it would prepare an environmental impact statement on core-making at Savannah River. A less extensive review is being done for Los Alamos, but watchdogs say that analysis will fall short of the nationwide public review required by such a significant proposal.

Legal challenge

Lawyers for the Natural Resources Defense Council, Nuclear Watch New Mexico, Savannah River Site Watch and Tri-Valley Communities Against a Radioactive Environment first threatened legal action last fall. They reiterated Thursday that a legal challenge is possible since the nuclear agency has declined to prepare a broader review.

“We need to find smart ways to face the world’s renewed nuclear arms race. Unnecessary expanded production of questionable plutonium bomb cores is not the way to do it,” said Jay Coghlan of Nuclear Waste New Mexico.

Under the National Environmental Policy Act, Coghlan said the federal government should be considering credible alternatives to ensuring the reliability and sustainability of the nuclear arsenal rather than the rubber stamping of a “nukes forever” agenda that is funded by taxpayers.

Years-long debate

While the NNSA’s decision comes as President Donald Trump on Thursday proposed overhauling the half-century old National Environmental Policy Act, the issues surrounding plutonium pit production have spanned multiple presidential administrations.

Elected leaders in New Mexico and South Carolina long have been jockeying for the lucrative mission. Some members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation have resisted the nuclear agency’s plan, arguing that production should be centered at Los Alamos — the once-secret city in northern New Mexico where the atomic bomb was developed decades ago as part of the Manhattan Project.

The mission of producing the cores has been based at Los Alamos for years but none have been made since 2011 as the lab has been dogged by a string of safety lapses and concerns about a lack of accountability.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico criticized the Trump administration Thursday for its proposed rollbacks, saying the environmental policy act is the only law that requires federal agencies to consider the environmental and climate related consequences of federal actions. As for the plutonium project, the senior senator has yet to say whether he would support more environmental reviews.
 

Missing Mexican Radio Host Found Dead in Violent Michoacan

A radio station host and manager in the Mexican state of Michoacan who went missing in late November has been found dead, officials said Thursday, adding to the growing murder toll of journalists as violence escalates across the country.

Local media said he had been shot to death.

Mexico registered 10 killings of journalists in 2019, the same number as the year before and in line with Syria, according to Reporters Without Borders, making Mexico one of the world’s most dangerous places for media workers.

The body of Fidel Avila, of the “Ke Buena” station in the western state of Michoacan’s Huetamo municipality, was found on a highway earlier this week, 40 days after he was last seen at a cultural event in neighboring Guerrero state, Mexico’s National Commission of Human Rights said.

“Our condolences to the family and friends of Fidel Avila Gomez, journalist in Michoacan. We deeply lament his murder,” presidential spokesman Jesus Ramirez wrote in a post on Twitter.

Michoacan and Guerrero are two of Mexico’s most violent and lawless states, where rival drug gangs have battled to control smuggling routes.

The president of the Michoacan Association of Journalists, Alvaro Garcia, told local television that criminal activity in the area was at a peak.

“There is always a persistent risk,” he said.
 

Exchange Program Brings High Schoolers to US

Several exchange programs are geared for high school students to study in the U.S., and applicants are encouraged to get their documents together for this year’s competition.

High school students in Europe or Eurasia might check out the FLEX program that brings students from those regions to the U.S. on a yearlong cultural exchange.

The Future Leaders Exchange Program (FLEX) is a student exchange program sponsored by the U.S. State Department that brings international students from 21 countries to the U.S. for one academic year.

FLEX offers international students an opportunity to learn about the U.S. and its culture. Participants become young cultural ambassadors of their homeland to share with Americans. The program tries to create strong ties among the student, the host families and the local community to build lifetime relationships.

Students from 21 countries

“My story starts and ends with my amazing host family, that was the highlight of my year. From the first day, I felt like a part of the family. The same happened with my school; I didn’t really have a hard time making friends and getting along to other people,” Mariam, a former student from Georgia who was hosted in California, wrote on the FLEX website.

The FLEX program partners with schools from 170 cities in 21 countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Ukraine.

Each year, about 950 high school students are selected and given a scholarship to attend high school in the U.S. for a year while they stay with a host family. Applicants must be in high school and between 15 and 17 years old to participate. Students who are blind, deaf, have mobility issues or need special accommodations are also encouraged to apply, Frank said.

Families throughout the U.S. volunteer to host FLEX scholars. They do not receive payment.

“My host mom, Monica, always says: Whatever you start, once you are into it, you need to finish it and go for it,’ and that’s a really good thought,” said Vadym, a former student from Ukraine who was hosted in Iowa.  “This year was awesome. I can see strong changes in my character and that’s a really great feeling.”

Able to speak English

Participants need to be able to communicate and be amiable with their host family, their classmates and at school, said Valerie Frank, senior program manager at American Councils.

“Participants must have a functional level of spoken English to survive 6,000 miles away from home for 12 months,” she said. “Candidates also need to have a good or better standing in order to win a scholarship.”

Also, candidates need to do well on the ELTiS Test to be taken into consideration by schools in the U.S.” The ELTiS test is a rigorous academic English test developed to measure the listening and reading comprehension skills of high school-age students whose first language is not English, according to the ELTiS website. 

To apply for the FLEX scholarship, candidates contact the American Councils office in their country. The application cycle is rolling, but typically ends in the fall. Applicants should check with the American Councils in their country or region for specific dates.

FLEX gives students a $125 stipend per month for social activities, program orientation and activities, as well as medical insurance. Students who are interested in FLEX should check to see if they are eligible for a J-1 visa before applying.

The exchange program does not cover the costs for documentation. The program includes an orientation before leaving for the U.S. and another a few days before school starts in their American hometown. Parents or other relatives are not allowed to stay with the student during the orientation program.

Applicants are ineligible if they have stayed 90 days or more in the U.S. in the past five years, or have received a green card or won the visa lottery.

Host families

If a participant has difficulty keeping up with classwork, their host family and the scholar’s placement organization will help get tutoring. Homesickness is remedied by the host family and a local program coordinator who help the students deal with difficulties they might encounter in the U.S.

“Some of the countries located in Central Asia tend to have a little more difficulty when trying to master the English language and break the barrier during their stay,” Frank said. FLEX works with students in countries where English is not widely spoken. It does not matter whether a participant attends a public or private school.

“This year changed my life and me personally. I learned not only how to speak better English, but also American history, geography, values, way of life and all other aspects of culture,” former FLEX participant Zhanar from Kazakhstan said on the program’s website.

FLEX was established in 1992 and serves as a model for other exchange programs such as the YES (Kennedy-Lugar Youth Exchange and Study) and A-SMYLE (American Serbia and Montenegro Youth Leadership Exchange) programs, and has since expanded to other countries, according to the FLEX website. Funding is provided through the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.

ACLU Sues School District, Says Native American Students Faced Discrimination

The American Civil Liberties Union of New Mexico Wednesday sued the state’s largest school district and a former teacher over a 2018 incident where the teacher allegedly cut a Native American student’s hair during class on Halloween and asked another student if she was dressed as a “bloody Indian.”

The ACLU’s complaint against Albuquerque Public Schools and the former teacher, Mary Jane Eastin, contends she created a hostile learning environment and discriminated against McKenzie Johnson, who is Navajo. The group also claims the school district failed to properly train teachers and provide for student safety.

The lawsuit follows discrimination charges filed in May 2019 with the New Mexico Human Rights Bureau by Johnson. The school district denied the allegations and the bureau did not reach a determination, clearing the way for the lawsuit.

Case would set precedent

The case is aimed at establishing a clear precedent that New Mexico’s anti-discrimination protections extend to students in public schools, said Preston Sanchez, an attorney at the ACLU of New Mexico. It also seeks unspecified financial damages.

“Not only must we ensure Native American students feel safe behind school walls, but we must also do everything in our power to ensure that they are treated with the dignity and respect they deserve,” Sanchez said.

School officials declined to comment on the case. Eastin has an unlisted phone number and it wasn’t immediately clear if she had an attorney.

The school district’s superintendent issued a public apology after the allegations emerged and told parents that Eastin would not return to Cibola High School, where she taught English.

School officials said later that Eastin’s employment with the school district ended in 2018 but did not disclose if she quit or was fired. They also said they would address racism and cultural sensitivity at all schools in the district.

Cultural sensitivity

Leaders from the Navajo Nation had called on the district to provide cultural sensitivity training. While they described the teacher’s acts as part of a “Halloween stunt,” they said one teen’s parents told them it was traumatizing.

According to the lawsuit, Eastin had dressed as a voodoo witch on Halloween and planned a game for her advanced English class in which she asked students questions and then rewarded those who answered correctly with marshmallows and gave dog food to those who answered incorrectly.

The lawsuit states that at one point, Eastin approached a Native American student and asked her if she liked her braids and then allegedly cut the tip of the girl’s hair with scissors.

Eastin also was accused of then asking another student, identified as Johnson, if she was dressed as a “bloody Indian.” The girl’s mother later told reporters her daughter was dressed for Halloween as Little Red Riding Hood with a red paw mark on her face.

The ACLU contends in the complaint that Johnson’s reputation was harmed and that she suffered personal injuries, including emotional distress.

Johnson has since recounted her story during school board meetings and at a Native American community forum hosted by the school district. She has said more needs to be done to address cultural sensitivity in Albuquerque’s schools.

Iran Tensions Easing as Democrats Plan Trump War Powers Vote

Congressional Democrats will vote Thursday to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s ability to pursue open conflict with Iran. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran appeared to be easing Wednesday, after Trump said Iran’s ballistic missiles attack on an Iraqi base proved the country was standing down. But congressional Democrats said the administration has yet to outline a clear strategy for dealing with the Islamic Republic following the U.S. airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Suleimani. VOA’s congressional correspondent Katherine Gypson has more from Capitol Hill.
 

Key Events Leading up to US-Iran Confrontation

Iran’s missile attack on two American bases in Iraq in response the the U.S. strike that killed its top general is the culmination of nearly two years of steadily rising tensions since President Donald Trump withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

The two countries are now engaged in their most serious confrontation since the 1979 Islamic revolution and takeover of the U.S. Embassy. Both sides have signaled restraint following the missile attack, but the threat of an all-out war remains.

A timeline of the main events leading up to this week’s hostilities:

-May 8, 2018: Trump announces that the U.S. is withdrawing from the nuclear deal signed by his predecessor, President Barack Obama, which had provided sanctions relief in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and stepped-up U.N. monitoring. Over the next several months, the U.S. ratchets up sanctions, exacerbating an economic crisis in Iran.

-Nov. 5, 2018: U.S. imposes tough sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, the lifeline of its economy, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announces a list of 12 demands it must meet for sanctions relief. Iran rejects the wide-ranging demands, which include ending its support for armed groups in the region, withdrawing from the Syrian civil war and halting its ballistic missile program.

-May 5, 2019: The U.S. announces the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force in response to “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” without providing details. It threatens “unrelenting force” in response to any attack.

-May 8, 2019: Iran vows to enrich its uranium stockpile closer to weapons-grade levels if world powers fail to negotiate new terms for its nuclear deal. The European Union urges Iran to respect the nuclear deal and says it plans to continue trading with the country. Trump says he would like Iran’s leaders to “call me.”

-May 12, 2019: The United Arab Emirates says four commercial ships off its eastern coast “were subjected to sabotage operations.”. Trump warns that if Tehran does “anything” in the form of an attack, “they will suffer greatly.”

-June 13, 2019: Two oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz are hit in an alleged assault that leaves one ablaze and adrift as 44 sailors are evacuated from both vessels and the U.S. Navy rushes to assist. America later blames Iran for the attack, something Tehran denies.

-June 20, 2019: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shoots down a U.S. military surveillance drone. Trump says he called off a planned retaliatory strike on Iran over concerns about casualties.

-July 1, 2019: Iran follows through on a threat to exceed the limit set by the nuclear deal on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which is used for civilian applications and not for nuclear weapons.

-Sept. 14, 2019: A drone attack on Saudi oil facilities temporarily cuts off half the oil supplies of the world’s largest producer, causing a spike in prices. The U.S. says Iran carried out the attack directly, calling it an “act of war” against Saudi Arabia. Iran denies involvement, while the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claim responsibility.

-October 2019: Massive anti-government protests erupt in Lebanon and Iraq. While the protests are primarily driven by economic grievances, they target governments that are closely allied to Iran. In Iraq, protesters openly decry Tehran’s influence and attack Iranian diplomatic facilities.

-November 2019: Protests break out in some 100 cities and towns in Iran after authorities raise the price of gasoline. The scale of the protests and the resulting crackdown are hard to determine as authorities shut down the internet for several days. Amnesty International later estimates that more than 300 people were killed.

-Dec. 27, 2019: A U.S. contractor is killed and several American and Iraqi troops are wounded in a rocket attack on a base in northern Iraq. The U.S. blames the attack on Kataeb Hezbollah, one of several Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq.

-Dec. 29, 2019: U.S. airstrikes hit Kataeb Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria, killing at least 25 fighters and bringing vows of revenge. Iraq calls the strikes a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty.

-Dec. 31, 2019: Hundreds of Iran-backed militiamen and their supporters barge through an outer barrier of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and hold two days of violent protests in which they smash windows, set fires and hurl rocks over the inner walls. U.S. Marines guarding the facility respond with tear gas. There are no casualties on either side.

-Jan. 3: A U.S. airstrike near Baghdad’s international airport kills Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force and the mastermind of its regional military interventions. A senior commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq is also killed in the strike. Iran vows “harsh retaliation.” Trump says he ordered the targeted killing to prevent a major attack. Congressional leaders and close U.S. allies say they were not consulted on the strike, which many fear could ignite a war.

-Jan. 5: Iran announces it will no longer abide by the nuclear deal and Iraq’s parliament holds a non-binding vote calling for the expulsion of all U.S. forces. Some 5,200 American troops are based in Iraq to help prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State group. Trump vows to impose sanctions on Iraq if it expels U.S. troops.

-Jan. 8: Iran launches several ballistic missiles on two bases in Iraq housing American troops in what it says is retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. There are no immediate reports of U.S. or Iraqi casualties. Trump tweets that “All is well!” and says he will deliver a statement Wednesday. Iran’s supreme leader says “we slapped them on the face” but that “military action is not enough.”

Puerto Ricans Sleep Outside, Wait for Power After ‘Devastating’ Quake

Many Puerto Ricans woke up on Wednesday to a second day without electricity after the island’s worst earthquake in over a century knocked out its biggest power plant, collapsed homes and killed at least one person.

Puerto Rico’s schools were closed on Wednesday and all public employees except police and health workers stayed home as engineers checked the safety of buildings after Tuesday’s 6.4 magnitude quake and powerful aftershocks.

Some Puerto Ricans in the hard-hit south of the island moved beds outside on Tuesday night and slept outdoors, fearful their homes would crumble if another earthquake hit after a week of tremors, governor Wanda Vázquez told reporters.

Nearly all of the island’s more than 3 million people lost power and only 100,000 customers had energy by late Tuesday night, according to the AEE electricity authority.

The agency scrambled to restart power plants that automatically shut down for safety during the quake. The large
Costa Sur plant suffered “severe damage” and was put out of service, Vázquez said after declaring a state of emergency.

Power should return to most of the island within 24 to 48 hours, so long as there are no more quakes, she said.
“All of Puerto Rico has seen the devastation of this earthquake,” said Vázquez, who took office in August after
Ricardo Rossello stepped down in the face of massive street protests against his administration.

Around 750 people spent the night in shelters in southern towns hit hardest by the earthquake, the government reported.

A home is seen collapsed after an earthquake in Guanica, Puerto Rico, Jan. 7, 2020.

Television images showed flattened homes and apartment buildings with deep cracks running down their exteriors in communities like Guánica and Ponce.

Bottled water, batteries and flashlights ran low at supermarkets in the capital San Juan and long lines formed
outside gas stations. Backup generators kept the city’s international airport functioning.
Puerto Ricans are used to dealing with hurricanes but powerful quakes are rare on the island.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty, this is the first time this has happened to us,” said Patricia Alonso, 48, who lost power
and water at her home and headed to her mother’s apartment building with her 13-year-old son as it had a generator.

Puerto Rico is still recovering from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 that killed about 3,000 people and destroyed a significant amount of infrastructure. The island is also working through a bankruptcy process to restructure about $120 billion of debt and pension obligations.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said on Tuesday that aid had been made available for earthquake response efforts.

Tuesday’s magnitude 6.4 quake struck at a depth of 6 miles (10 km) at 4:24 a.m. (0824 GMT) near Ponce, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

A 73-year-old man died after a wall fell on him, and a Costa Sur power plant worker was hospitalized after he was hit by debris, the governor said.

 

Philippines Orders Evacuation of Filipinos from Iraq, Iran

The Philippine government has ordered the mandatory evacuation of Filipino workers from Iraq and Iran and is sending a coast guard vessel to the Middle East to ferry its citizens to safety in case hostilities between the United States and Iran worsen, officials said Wednesday.

The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said the government has raised the alert level in Iraq to the highest level, requiring Filipinos to leave the country due to escalating security risks. Filipinos can leave on their own or be escorted out with the help of their employers or the Philippine government, officials said.

Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III said Filipino workers should also move out of Iran and Lebanon, adding that the government was indefinitely banning Filipino workers from traveling to the three countries amid fears of more hostilities.

The Philippines, one of the world’s leading labor providers, would face a gargantuan crisis if hostilities between the U.S. and Iran escalate and embroil other Middle Eastern countries that host large numbers of Filipino workers, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.

 “It will be a nightmare, but we are not helpless,” Bello said at a news conference in Manila.

Other Asian nations with large populations of expatriate labor may weigh similar decisions after Iran fired missiles at two Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces in a major escalation of hostilities. The strikes were retaliation for last week’s killing of Iran’s top general in a U.S. drone attack in Baghdad.

India, which has a large number of workers in the Middle East, advised its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Iraq. It also urged its nationals living in Iraq to remain alert and avoid travel within the country.

There are an estimated 15,000-17,000 Indians now in Iraq, mostly in the Kurdistan region, Basra, Najaf and Karbala. About 30,000-40,000 Indians visit Baghdad, Karbala, Najaf and Samarrah each year for pilgrimages.

Philippine officials have reported differing numbers of Filipinos in Iraq and Iran. The problem has been compounded by the huge numbers of Filipinos who have entered the countries illegally and avoided reporting their presence to Philippine Embassy officials.

Department of Labor records show that 2,191 Filipinos work in Iraq, some in U.S. facilities, while more than 1,180 others are based in Iran, including Filipino women married to Iranians.

There could be more than 2.1 million Filipinos across the Middle East, including many illegal workers, Bello said.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and top officials have been holding emergency meetings since the weekend to discuss evacuation plans.

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the plans include the possible deployment of one battalion each from the army and marines to secure and evacuate Filipinos in case of a major flareup of violence anywhere. Navy ships and three air force cargo aircraft were also being readied for possible deployment, the military said.

Duterte said late Tuesday that he has deployed a special envoy to get assurance from the leaders of Iraq and Iran that Filipinos would be spared in case of any major outbreak of violence.
“Just to get the assurance that my countrymen will have the egress just in case hell breaks loose,” Duterte told reporters.

While evacuation plans were being finalized, Manila’s coast guard said a new patrol vessel en route to the Philippines from France has instead been ordered to head to the Middle East in case Filipino workers need to be immediately extricated from any danger. The vessel can ferry up to 500 people at a time.

 “In case of conflict, overseas Filipino workers will be brought to safer ports where they may be airlifted, as the need arises,” the coast guard said, adding that an initial plan was for the Philippine vessel to temporarily stand by in Oman or Dubai.

About a tenth of the Philippines’ more than 100 million people have worked abroad for decades, mostly as household help, construction workers, sailors and professionals, to escape grinding poverty and unemployment at home. They are hailed as heroes for sending huge incomes that keep Manila’s economy afloat. Many have risked staying in Middle Eastern nations, where they face abuse and even death and often get caught up in violent turmoil, to provide for impoverished families back home.